Polygenic prediction of body mass index and obesity through the life course and across ancestries

Smit RA, Wade KH, Hui Q, Arias JD, Yin X, Christiansen MR, Yengo L, Preuss MH, Nakabuye M, Rocheleau G, Graham SE, Buchanan VL, Chittoor G, Graff M, Guindo-Martínez M, Lu Y, Marouli E, Sakaue S, Spracklen CN, Vedantam S, Wilson EP, Chen SH, Ferreira T, Ji Y, Karaderi T, Lüll K, Machado M, Malden DE, Medina-Gomez C, Moore A, Rüeger S, Akiyama M, Allison MA, Alvarez M, Andersen MK, Appadurai V, Arbeeva L, Bartell E, Bhaskar S, Bielak LF, Bis JC, Bollepalli S, Bork-Jensen J, Bradfield JP, Bradford Y, Brandl C, Braund PS, Brody JA, Broeckel U, Burgdorf KS, Cade BE, Cai Q, Camarda S, Campbell A, Cañadas-Garre M, Chai JF, Chesi A, Choi SH, Christofidou P, Couture C, Cuellar-Partida G, Danning R, Degenhardt F, Delgado GE, Delitala A, Demirkan A, Deng X, Dietl A, Dimitriou M, Dimitrov L, Dorajoo R, Eichelmann F, Eliasen AU, Engmann JE, Erdos MR, Fairhurst-Hunter Z, Farmaki AE, Faul JD, Fernandez-Lopez JC, Forer L, Frank M, Freitag-Wolf S, Fritsche LG, Fuchsberger C, Galesloot TE, Gao Y, Geller F, Giannakopoulou O, Giulianini F, Gjesing AP, Goel A, Gordon SD, Gorski M, Grove J, Guo X, Gustafsson S, Haessler J, Hansen TF, Havulinna AS, Haworth SJ, Heard-Costa N, Hemerich D, Highland HM, Hindy G, Ho YL, Hofer E, Holliday E, Horn K, Hornsby WE, Hottenga JJ, Huang H, Huang J, Huerta-Chagoya A, Huo S, Hwang MY, Hwu CM, Iha H, Ikeda DD, Isono M, Jackson AU, Jansen IE, Jiang Y, Johansson I, Jonsson A, Jørgensen T, Kalafati IP, Kanai M, Kanoni S, Kårhus LL, Kasturiratne A, Katsuya T, Kawaguchi T, Kember RL, Kentistou KA, Kim D, Kim HN, Kim YJ, Kleber ME, Knol MJ, Kurbasic A, Lauzon M, Le P, Lea R, Lee JY, Lee WJ, Leonard HL, Li H, Li SA, Li X, Li X, Liang J, Lin H, Lin K, Liu J, Liu X, Lo KS, Long J, Lores-Motta L, Luan J, Lyssenko V, Lyytikäinen LP, Mahajan A, Malik MZ, Mamakou V, Mangino M, Manichaikul A, Marten J, Mattheisen M, McDaid AF, Mei Q, Meiselbach H, Melendez TL, Milaneschi Y, Miller JE, Millwood IY, Mishra PP, Mitchell RE, Møllehave LT, Mononen N, Mucha S, Munz M, Mykkänen J, Nakatochi M, Nardone GG, Nelson CP, Nethander M, Nho CW, Nielsen AA, Nolte IM, Nongmaithem SS, Noordam R, Ntalla I, Nutile T, Pandit A, Pauper M, Petersen ER, Petersen LV, Piluso F, Polašek O, Poveda A, Pyarajan S, Raffield LM, Rakugi H, Ramirez J, Rasheed A, Raven D, Rayner NW, Riveros C, Rohde R, Ruggiero D, Ruotsalainen SE, Ryan KA, Sabater-Lleal M, Santin A, Saxena R, Scholz M, Shen B, Shi J, Shin JH, Sidore C, Sidorenko J, Sim X, Slieker RC, Smith AV, Smith JA, Smyth LJ, Southam L, Steinthorsdottir V, Sun L, Takeuchi F, Taylor KD, Tayo BO, Tcheandjieu C, Terzikhan N, Tesolin P, Teumer A, Theusch E, Thompson DJ, Thorleifsson G, Timmers PR, Trompet S, Turman C, Vaccargiu S, van der Laan SW, van der Most PJ, van Klinken JB, van Setten J, Verma SS, Verweij N, Veturi Y, Wang CA, Wang C, Wang JS, Wang L, Wang YX, Wang Z, Warren HR, Bin Wei W, Wen W, Wheeler WA, Wickremasinghe AR, Wielscher M, Winsvold BS, Wong A, Wuttke M, Xia R, Yamamoto K, Yang J, Yao J, Young H, Yousri NA, Yu L, Zeng L, Zhang W, Zhang X, Zhao JH, Zhao W, Zhou W, Zimmermann ME, Zoledziewska M, 't Hart LM, Adair LS, Adams HH, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Al-Mulla F, Arnett DK, Asselbergs FW, Åsvold BO, Attia J, Banas B, Bandinelli S, Beilin LJ, Bennett DA, Bergler T, Bharadwaj D, Biino G, Boerwinkle E, Böger CA, Borja JB, Bouchard C, Bowden DW, Brandslund I, Brumpton B, Buring JE, Caulfield MJ, Chambers JC, Chandak GR, Chanock SJ, Chaturvedi N, Ida Chen YD, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Cho YS, Christensen K, Christophersen IE, Ciullo M, Cole JW, Collins FS, Concas MP, Cooper RS, Cruz M, Cucca F, Cutler MJ, Damrauer SM, Dantoft TM, de Borst GJ, de Geus EJ, de Groot LC, De Jager PL, de Kleijn DP, de Silva HJ, Dedoussis GV, den Hollander AI, Du S, Easton DF, Eckardt KU, Elders PJ, Eliassen AH, Ellinor PT, Elmståhl S, Erdmann J, Evans MK, Fatkin D, Feenstra B, Feitosa MF, Ferrucci L, Florez JC, Ford I, Fornage M, Franke A, Franks PW, Freedman BI, Gieger C, Girotto G, Golightly YM, Gonzalez-Villalpando C, 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Singleton AB, Sinner MF, Smith JG, Snieder H, Spector TD, Spedicati B, Stampfer MJ, Stark KJ, Strachan DP, Tabara Y, Tai ES, Tang H, Tardif JC, Thanaraj TA, Tönjes A, Tuomi T, Tuomilehto J, Tusié-Luna MT, van Dam RM, van der Harst P, Van der Velde N, van Duijn CM, van Schoor NM, Vitart V, Vohl MC, Völker U, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Vrieze S, Wacher-Rodarte NH, Walker M, Wander GS, Wareham NJ, Watanabe RM, Watkins H, Weir DR, Werge TM, Widen E, Willemsen G, Willett WC, Wilson JF, Wilson PW, Wong TY, Woo JT, Wright AF, Xu H, Yajnik CS, Yang J, Yokota M, Yuan JM, Zeggini E, Zemel BS, Zheng W, Zhu X, Zillikens MC, Zonderman AB, Zwart JA, Abecasis GR, Assimes TL, Auton A, Boehnke M, Chasman DI, Esko T, Stefansson K, Lettre G, Lindgren CM, Ng MC, O'Donnell CJ, Thorsteinsdottir U, Visscher PM, Walters RG, Winkler TW, Wood AR, Deloukas P, Frayling TM, Justice AE, Kilpeläinen TO, Locke AE, Mohlke KL, North KE, Okada Y, Willer CJ, Young KL, Fatumo S, McCaffery JM, Timpson NJ, Hirschhorn JN, Sun YV, Berndt SI, Loos RJ (2025)


Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2025

Journal

Book Volume: 31

Pages Range: 3151-3168

Journal Issue: 9

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03827-z

Abstract

Polygenic scores (PGSs) for body mass index (BMI) may guide early prevention and targeted treatment of obesity. Using genetic data from up to 5.1 million people (4.6% African ancestry, 14.4% American ancestry, 8.4% East Asian ancestry, 71.1% European ancestry and 1.5% South Asian ancestry) from the GIANT consortium and 23andMe, Inc., we developed ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PGSs. The multi-ancestry score explained 17.6% of BMI variation among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry. For other populations, this ranged from 16% in East Asian-Americans to 2.2% in rural Ugandans. In the ALSPAC study, children with higher PGSs showed accelerated BMI gain from age 2.5 years to adolescence, with earlier adiposity rebound. Adding the PGS to predictors available at birth nearly doubled explained variance for BMI from age 5 onward (for example, from 11% to 21% at age 8). Up to age 5, adding the PGS to early-life BMI improved prediction of BMI at age 18 (for example, from 22% to 35% at age 5). Higher PGSs were associated with greater adult weight gain. In intensive lifestyle intervention trials, individuals with higher PGSs lost modestly more weight in the first year (0.55 kg per s.d.) but were more likely to regain it. Overall, these data show that PGSs have the potential to improve obesity prediction, particularly when implemented early in life.

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Nanjing Medical University / 南京医科大学 CN China (CN) Novo Nordisk Foundation / Novo Nordisk Fonden (NNF) DK Denmark (DK) Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel DE Germany (DE) University of Peloponnese GR Greece (GR) Boston University US United States (USA) (US) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) / University Amsterdam NL Netherlands (NL) Lund University / Lunds universitet SE Sweden (SE) University of Edinburgh GB United Kingdom (GB) University of Maryland School of Pharmacy US United States (USA) (US) University of Minnesota (UMN) US United States (USA) (US) University of Maryland School of Pharmacy US United States (USA) (US) Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) US United States (USA) (US) Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar (WCM-Q) QA Qatar (QA) Keck School of Medicine of USC US United States (USA) (US) Peking University Health Science Center CN China (CN) Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel DE Germany (DE) Karolinska Institute SE Sweden (SE) Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) / Folkehelseinstituttet NO Norway (NO) Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai US United States (USA) (US) Queen Mary University of London GB United Kingdom (GB) Copenhagen University Hospital DK Denmark (DK) University of Mississippi Medical Center US United States (USA) (US) University of Oxford GB United Kingdom (GB) Case Western Reserve University US United States (USA) (US) Hunter Medical Research Institute (HMRI) AU Australia (AU) Universitätsklinikum Freiburg DE Germany (DE) Amsterdam University Medical Centers (Amsterdam UMC) / Amsterdam Universitair Medische Centra NL Netherlands (NL) University of South Australia AU Australia (AU) University of California San Francisco (UCSF) US United States (USA) (US) Stanford University US United States (USA) (US) Children's Hospital of Philadelphia US United States (USA) (US) National University of Singapore (NUS) SG Singapore (SG) University College London (UCL) GB United Kingdom (GB) National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) US United States (USA) (US) eurac research IT Italy (IT) Queensland University of Technology (QUT) AU Australia (AU) Taichung Veterans General Hospital TW Taiwan (TW) Capital University of Medical Sciences / 首都医科大学 CN China (CN) Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán MX Mexico (MX) Centro Medico Nacional Siglo XXI MX Mexico (MX) Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (INSP) / National Institute of Public Health MX Mexico (MX) Duke University US United States (USA) (US) Universitätsklinikum Bonn DE Germany (DE) eurac research IT Italy (IT) University of Newcastle (UoN) AU Australia (AU) Université Laval (UL) CA Canada (CA) University of Connecticut (UConn) US United States (USA) (US) U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs US United States (USA) (US) University of Leicester GB United Kingdom (GB) Medical College of Wisconsin (MCW) US United States (USA) (US) King’s College London GB United Kingdom (GB) Università degli Studi di Sassari (UNISS) IT Italy (IT) Statens Serum Institut DK Denmark (DK) Korea National Institute of Health (KNIH) KR Korea, Republic of (KR) National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM) JP Japan (JP) University of Toronto CA Canada (CA) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens GR Greece (GR) Lundbeck Foundation Initiative for Integrative Psychiatric Research DK Denmark (DK) University of Split / Sveučilište u Splitu HR Croatia (HR) Loyola University Chicago US United States (USA) (US) University of Utah US United States (USA) (US) University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) US United States (USA) (US) University of Glasgow GB United Kingdom (GB) National Cancer Institute (NCI) US United States (USA) (US) University of Michigan US United States (USA) (US) University of Bergen / Universitetet i Bergen NO Norway (NO) Universität zu Lübeck DE Germany (DE) Vejle Sygehus DK Denmark (DK) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) / National Research Council of Italy IT Italy (IT) NTNU Trondheim - Norwegian University of Science and Technology NO Norway (NO) Icelandic Heart Association (IHA) IS Iceland (IS) Eli and Edythe L. Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard US United States (USA) (US) University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) US United States (USA) (US) Harvard University US United States (USA) (US) Medizinische Universität Innsbruck AT Austria (AT) Harbor–UCLA Medical Center US United States (USA) (US) Rigshospitalet DK Denmark (DK) Medizinische Universität Graz AT Austria (AT) Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / 大塚製薬株式会社 JP Japan (JP) Institut de Cardiologie de Montréal CA Canada (CA) University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG) / Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen NL Netherlands (NL) Institute of genetics and biophysics "Adriano Buzzati Traverso" (IGB) IT Italy (IT) Institute of genetics and biophysics "Adriano Buzzati Traverso" (IGB) IT Italy (IT) Harbor–UCLA Medical Center US United States (USA) (US) Louisiana State University US United States (USA) (US) University of Amsterdam NL Netherlands (NL) University of Exeter GB United Kingdom (GB) Kyung Hee University KR Korea, Republic of (KR) Singapore Eye Research Institute SG Singapore (SG) University of Oklahoma US United States (USA) (US) Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung (DZHK e.V.) DE Germany (DE) Institut de Cardiologie de Montréal CA Canada (CA) Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung (DZHK e.V.) DE Germany (DE) Dayanand Medical College & Hospital IN India (IN) University of Copenhagen DK Denmark (DK) Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center US United States (USA) (US) Southern University of Science and Technology CN China (CN) Taipei Veterans General Hospital / 台北榮民總醫院 TW Taiwan (TW) Nagoya University / 名古屋大学 JP Japan (JP) Sahlgrenska University Hospital / Sahlgrenska Universitetssjukhuset SE Sweden (SE) Leiden University Medical Center NL Netherlands (NL) University of Western Australia (UWA) AU Australia (AU) Intermountain Healthcare US United States (USA) (US) Wageningen University & Research NL Netherlands (NL) Lausanne University Hospital / Centre hospitalier universitaire vaudois (CHUV) CH Switzerland (CH) University of Dundee GB United Kingdom (GB) University of California, Riverside (UCR) US United States (USA) (US) Geisinger Health System US United States (USA) (US) RTI International US United States (USA) (US) Università degli Studi di Trieste IT Italy (IT) Queen's University GB United Kingdom (GB) Genome Institute of Singapore SG Singapore (SG) QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (früher: the Queensland Institute of Medical Research) AU Australia (AU) Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health US United States (USA) (US) Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) / 한국과학기술연구원 KR Korea, Republic of (KR) Helmholtz Zentrum München - Deutsches Forschungszentrum für Gesundheit und Umwelt (HMGU) / Helmholtz Munich DE Germany (DE) Oslo University Hospital / Oslo Universitetssykehus Rikshospitalet NO Norway (NO) Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute AU Australia (AU) Albert Einstein College of Medicine US United States (USA) (US) The Catholic University of Korea Incheon St. Mary's Hospital / 가톨릭대학교 인천성모병원 KR Korea, Republic of (KR) University of Iowa US United States (USA) (US) UPMC Hillman Cancer Center US United States (USA) (US) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill US United States (USA) (US) IMS RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences JP Japan (JP) National Institute on Aging (NIA) US United States (USA) (US) University of Virginia (UVA) US United States (USA) (US) Sant Pau Institute for Biomedical Research (IIBSP) / Institut de 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Nijmegen Medical Centre / Radboudumc of voluit Radboud Universitair Medisch Centrum (UMC) NL Netherlands (NL) Universität Regensburg DE Germany (DE) University of Massachusetts Medical School US United States (USA) (US) deCODE genetics IS Iceland (IS) National Institute of Genomic Medicine / Instituto Nacional de Medicina Genómica (INMEGEN) MX Mexico (MX) National Health Research Institutes (NHRI) / 國家衛生研究院 TW Taiwan (TW) Huazhong University of Science & Technology CN China (CN) Imperial College London / The Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine GB United Kingdom (GB) Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) IN India (IN) University of Southern Denmark / Syddansk Universitet DK Denmark (DK) Oulun Yliopisto / University of Oulo FI Finland (FI) Fondation Adolphe de Rothschild Hospital FR France (FR) Yonsei University Health System (YUHS) KR Korea, Republic of (KR) Boston Children's Hospital US United States (USA) (US) University of Bristol GB United Kingdom (GB) Vanderbilt 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(FI) Lillebaelt Hospital / Sygehus Lillebælt DK Denmark (DK) Hallym University KR Korea, Republic of (KR) VA Palo Alto Health Care System US United States (USA) (US) Rush University US United States (USA) (US) I.R.C.C.S. materno infantile Burlo Garofolo IT Italy (IT) Tampere University Hospital / Tampereen yliopistollinen sairaala (TAYS) FI Finland (FI) Tampere University Hospital / Tampereen yliopistollinen sairaala (TAYS) FI Finland (FI) Wenzhou Medical University / 温州医科大学 (WMU) CN China (CN) University of Sydney (USYD) AU Australia (AU) University of Ibadan NG Nigeria (NG) Harokopio University / Χαροκόπειο Πανεπιστήμιο GR Greece (GR) University of Cambridge GB United Kingdom (GB) Washington University in St. Louis US United States (USA) (US) Deutsches Zentrum für Diabetesforschung e.V. (DZD) DE Germany (DE) Jichi Medical University / 自治医科大学 JP Japan (JP) Fimlab Laboratories FI Finland (FI) Washington University in St. Louis US United States (USA) (US) Veterans Health Administration (VHA) US United States (USA) (US) Fimlab Laboratories FI Finland (FI) Universitätsmedizin Greifswald / Universitätsklinikum Greifswald DE Germany (DE) Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) US United States (USA) (US) University of South Carolina US United States (USA) (US) University of Tasmania (UTAS) AU Australia (AU) Newcastle University GB United Kingdom (GB)

How to cite

APA:

Smit, R.A., Wade, K.H., Hui, Q., Arias, J.D., Yin, X., Christiansen, M.R.,... Loos, R.J. (2025). Polygenic prediction of body mass index and obesity through the life course and across ancestries. Nature Medicine, 31(9), 3151-3168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03827-z

MLA:

Smit, Roelof A.J., et al. "Polygenic prediction of body mass index and obesity through the life course and across ancestries." Nature Medicine 31.9 (2025): 3151-3168.

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