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The impact of climatical change on stroke frequency in southwest of Germany Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Schlaganfallhäufigkeit in Südwestdeutschland

Treib J, Adler W, Treib S, Gröschel K, Binder A, Morgenthaler M, Wössner R, Hammen T, Treib P, Faβbender K, Treib J (2025)

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Publication Type: Journal article, Review article

Publication year: 2025

Journal

Book Volume: 44

Pages Range: 506-513

Journal Issue: 7-8

DOI: 10.1055/a-2578-7174

Abstract

Background: The impact of climate change on future stroke incidence in Germany remains uncertain. Predictive limitations include regional climate variability, data quality, uncertainties in green-house gas scenarios and models, human adaptability, and complex statistical relationships. Method: The German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) generated projections of mean and maximum temperatures as well as humidity levels up to the year 2100 for the 4 supra-regional stroke units in Homburg, Kaiserslautern, Mainz, and Saarbrücken, based on 2 greenhouse gas scenarios. These meteorological parameters were statistically analyzed and correlated with ICD-10 data from 51 592 stroke patients over the past decade at each location. The association between stroke incidence and weather parameters was estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), incorporating a 7-day lag period. Results: At all 4 locations, future greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to rising temperatures and a slight decrease in humidity. Under the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas scenario, climate change is expected to reduce stroke incidence by approximately 0.5 % to 1.5 % by the end of this century, while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the reduction is projected to range from 0.9 % to 3 %. Conclusion: According to our model calculations, climate change is expected to result in a slight decline in stroke incidence within our climate zones. However, increasing weather extremes were not accounted for in the statistical analysis.

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How to cite

APA:

Treib, J., Adler, W., Treib, S., Gröschel, K., Binder, A., Morgenthaler, M.,... Treib, J. (2025). The impact of climatical change on stroke frequency in southwest of Germany Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Schlaganfallhäufigkeit in Südwestdeutschland. Nervenheilkunde, 44(7-8), 506-513. https://doi.org/10.1055/a-2578-7174

MLA:

Treib, Johanna, et al. "The impact of climatical change on stroke frequency in southwest of Germany Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Schlaganfallhäufigkeit in Südwestdeutschland." Nervenheilkunde 44.7-8 (2025): 506-513.

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