Environmental consequences of interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and climate: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2024

Neale PJ, Hylander S, Banaszak AT, Häder DP, Rose KC, Vione D, Wängberg SÅ, Jansen MA, Busquets R, Andersen MP, Madronich S, Hanson ML, Schikowski T, Solomon KR, Sulzberger B, Wallington TJ, Heikkilä AM, Pandey KK, Andrady AL, Bruckman LS, White CC, Zhu L, Bernhard GH, Bais A, Aucamp PJ, Chiodo G, Cordero RR, Petropavlovskikh I, Neale RE, Olsen CM, Hales S, Lal A, Lingham G, Rhodes LE, Young AR, Robson TM, Robinson SA, Barnes PW, Bornman JF, Harper AB, Lee H, Calderón RM, Ossola R, Paul ND, Revell LE, Wang QW, Zepp RG (2025)

Publication Type: Journal article

Publication year: 2025

Journal

Article Number: 124041

DOI: 10.1007/s43630-025-00687-x

Abstract

This Assessment Update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) addresses the interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate on the environment and human health. These include new modelling studies that confirm the benefits of the Montreal Protocol in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer and its role in maintaining a stable climate, both at low and high latitudes. We also provide an update on projected levels of solar UV-radiation during the twenty-first century. Potential environmental consequences of climate intervention scenarios are also briefly discussed, illustrating the large uncertainties of, for example, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). Modelling studies predict that, although SAI would cool the Earth’s surface, other climate factors would be affected, including stratospheric ozone depletion and precipitation patterns. The contribution to global warming of replacements for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are assessed. With respect to the breakdown products of chemicals under the purview of the Montreal Protocol, the risks to ecosystem and human health from the formation of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) as a degradation product of ODS replacements are currently de minimis. UV-radiation and climate change continue to have complex interactive effects on the environment due largely to human activities. UV-radiation, other weathering factors, and microbial action contribute significantly to the breakdown of plastic waste in the environment, and in affecting transport, fate, and toxicity of the plastics in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and the atmosphere. Sustainability demands continue to drive industry innovations to mitigate environmental consequences of the use and disposal of plastic and plastic-containing materials. Terrestrial ecosystems in alpine and polar environments are increasingly being exposed to enhanced UV-radiation due to earlier seasonal snow and ice melt because of climate warming and extended periods of ozone depletion. Solar radiation, including UV-radiation, also contributes to the decomposition of dead plant material, which affects nutrient cycling, carbon storage, emission of greenhouse gases, and soil fertility. In aquatic ecosystems, loss of ice cover is increasing the area of polar oceans exposed to UV-radiation with possible negative effects on phytoplankton productivity. However, modelling studies of Arctic Ocean circulation suggests that phytoplankton are circulating to progressively deeper ocean layers with less UV irradiation. Human health is also modified by climate change and behaviour patterns, resulting in changes in exposure to UV-radiation with harmful or beneficial effects depending on conditions and skin type. For example, incidence of melanoma has been associated with increased air temperature, which affects time spent outdoors and thus exposure to UV-radiation. Overall, implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments has mitigated the deleterious effects of high levels of UV-radiation and global warming for both environmental and human health.

Authors with CRIS profile

Involved external institutions

University College Cork (UCC) Ireland (IE) QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (früher: the Queensland Institute of Medical Research) Australia (AU) University of Gothenburg / Göteborgs universitet Sweden (SE) Ptersa Environmental Consultants South Africa (ZA) Donghua University / 东华大学 China (CN) Ramboll (USA) United States (USA) (US) University of Turin / Università degli Studi di Torino (UNITO) Italy (IT) Finnish Meteorological Institute / Finnisches Meteorologisches Institut Finland (FI) University of Georgia (UGA) United States (USA) (US) University of Colorado at Boulder United States (USA) (US) University of Manitoba Canada (CA) Colorado State University United States (USA) (US) Biospherical Instruments Inc United States (USA) (US) University of Otago New Zealand (NZ) University of Magallanes / Universidad de Magallanes (UMAG) Chile (CL) University of Cumbria United Kingdom (GB) Leibniz-Institut für umweltmedizinische Forschung (IUF) / Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine Germany (DE) Murdoch University Australia (AU) University of Michigan United States (USA) (US) Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology China (CN) University of Manchester United Kingdom (GB) Case Western Reserve University United States (USA) (US) NTNU Trondheim - Norwegian University of Science and Technology Norway (NO) Lancaster Environment Centre United Kingdom (GB) Loyola University New Orleans United States (USA) (US) University of Wollongong (UOW) Australia (AU) Linnaeus University (LNU) / Linnéuniversitetet Sweden (SE) National Autonomous University of Mexico / Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Mexico (MX) Australian National University (ANU) Australia (AU) California State University, Northridge (CSUN) United States (USA) (US) Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology / Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz (EAWAG) Switzerland (CH) University of Guelph (U of G) Canada (CA) National Center for Atmospheric Research United States (USA) (US) University of Canterbury New Zealand (NZ) Smithsonian Institution United States (USA) (US) Spanish National Research Council / Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) Spain (ES) North Carolina State University United States (USA) (US) University of Western Australia (UWA) Australia (AU) Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Greece (GR) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) United States (USA) (US) Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH) / University of Santiago, Chile Chile (CL) King’s College London United Kingdom (GB) Indian Academy of Wood Science (IAWS) India (IN) Kingston University United Kingdom (GB)

How to cite

APA:

Neale, P.J., Hylander, S., Banaszak, A.T., Häder, D.-P., Rose, K.C., Vione, D.,... Zepp, R.G. (2025). Environmental consequences of interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and climate: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2024. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43630-025-00687-x

MLA:

Neale, Patrick J., et al. "Environmental consequences of interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and climate: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2024." Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences (2025).

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