Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion
Bostrom N, Müller VC (2016)
Publication Type: Book chapter / Article in edited volumes
Publication year: 2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Series: Synthese Library
Book Volume: 376
Pages Range: 555-572
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26485-1_33
Abstract
There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040–2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
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United Kingdom (GB)How to cite
APA:
Bostrom, N., & Müller, V.C. (2016). Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion. In (pp. 555-572). Springer Science and Business Media B.V..
MLA:
Bostrom, Nick, and Vincent C. Müller. "Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion." Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2016. 555-572.
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